The biggest experience of Xiao Li, a stamping shop worker in a joint venture automobile factory in Changchun City, the major automobile manufacturing center, was that the rest time was significantly less. “Three shifts fell, and the orders were piled up for months.” Xiao Li estimated this. The state may continue until next year, but he also said with a smile: "It's always better to be busy than to be idle."

Although front-line workers like Xiao Li do not need to worry about the development of enterprises after five years, they will enter the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period in the next four months and how to plan the development of the Chinese automobile industry in the next five years. , has become one of the tasks that government policy makers urgently need to focus on.

It is said that during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the automobile industry development plan will be revised on the basis of previous industrial policies. Today, under the leadership of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, China Automotive Technology Research Center and the China Automotive Industry Association and other industry sectors are formulating preliminary plans. The future of China's auto industry will soon surface.

Output exceeded 30 million vehicles

Su Hui, a senior marketing expert who lives in Beijing's automotive industry, looked at the ever-changing number of motor vehicles around the city and could not help but sigh: “China’s auto industry is developing so fast that it is expected that the number of vehicles in Beijing will exceed 7 million vehicles in five years. It is the limit of this city."

Not only in first-tier cities such as Beijing, but also in the second-tier and third-tier cities such as Xi'an, Shenyang, and Chengdu, the road congestion has become increasingly felt. According to Zhang Xiaoxuan, vice president of China Federation of Machinery Industry, China's rapid entry into the automobile society is closely related to national policies.

“If the major background of the 1994 automobile policy is the adjustment of the entire national economy and the challenges to the WTO, the introduction of the new industrial policy in 2004 is to further accelerate the development of the automobile industry. In 2008, the automotive industry as the top ten industries A rejuvenated industry has ensured the growth of the auto industry in a specific environment by expanding domestic demand and stimulating consumption, and has brought the auto industry back to the track of an average annual increase of 22%, said Zhang Xiaokai.

At the end of 2009, China's 30 major auto companies (groups) formed a total vehicle production capacity of 13.59 million vehicles. According to the forecast of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the planned production capacity at the end of 2015 will reach 31.24 million.

In the next five years, the scale of automobile production and sales will be further expanded, and it is almost the industry's unanimous judgment. However, Dong Yang, executive vice chairman of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, does not believe that the simultaneous increase in quantity and quality is a paradox. On the contrary, he believes that the scale of production and sales will expand. Give China independent innovation, independent development, including new energy vehicles to provide more support.

"We believe that during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, domestic auto production will reach 30 million units, accounting for 30% of the world's auto production (80 million vehicles), of which passenger vehicles will account for 81%, commercial vehicles will account for about 19%, and the sales ratio will be domestic. It sold 25 million vehicles and exported 5 million vehicles.” Dong Yang gave the above judgment on the overall scale of the Chinese automobile industry after five years.

Competing for the status of a strong car

After China's auto industry sits firmly on the throne of the world's largest auto market, people in the industry believe that how to achieve smooth industrial transformation is the key to the development of the “12th Five-Year Plan” and even “13th Five-Year Plan”.

"If you talk about the transformation and upgrading of the auto industry and what is the goal of structural adjustment, it is to become a strong country in the industry." Zhang Xiaorong affirmed the reporter.

Accelerated mergers and reorganizations have been officially put on the agenda. In the "Opinions on Promoting Mergers and Acquisitions of Enterprises" (hereinafter referred to as "Opinions") announced by the State Council last week, the automotive industry ranks first in the six major industries. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set up a drafting group specifically to formulate specific merger and reorganization policies for auto companies. It is expected to be announced at the end of 2010.

In contrast to the repeated mention of mergers and acquisitions only at the macro level, Dong Yang said in an interview with the “First Financial Daily” recently that the “opinions” played the role of the main body of the enterprise, aimed at correctness, and rationalized the distribution of interests among different regions. Thoughtful, but still to be implemented.

The implementation of mergers and reorganizations is in full swing. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicts that during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, large enterprise groups will initially take shape, structural adjustments will be further accelerated, energy-saving and emission-reduction levels will increase significantly, and Chinese autos going out and overseas acquisitions will Further expand.

In the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” drafted by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, it outlines the space that Chinese auto companies need to upgrade in the future to participate in the value chain of international competition. "In the past, we cooperated with foreign companies to explore the Chinese market. In the future, we may need to join hands with foreign companies to open up two markets, including the Chinese market and the world market," Dong Yang said.

People in the automotive industry generally believe that in the next five years, the Chinese automobile industry should focus on quantity analysis and pay more attention to quality improvement. While developing energy-saving and new energy vehicles, the government should pay more attention to auto parts enterprises to become bigger and stronger. It is hoped that the formation of ten or more large-scale parts and components with international competitiveness during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period will be the goal of the China Automobile Industry Association.

The future of China’s auto industry is becoming clearer, but Zhang Xiaozhen still reminds the industry that the size of the market is determined by the international economic and social environment. However, whether or not it can do a good job is determined by the Chinese auto industry itself.

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