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According to recent reports, analysts predict that global demand for polyester will continue to grow rapidly in the coming period, driven by factors such as the Beijing Olympics and the European Union’s removal of textile quotas on Chinese exports. Additionally, the limited expansion of new production capacity is expected to support this upward trend.
The price of key raw materials, particularly ethylene glycol (MEG), is likely to remain elevated in the first half of the year due to supply constraints. A report from JPMorgan highlights that the Beijing Olympics is expected to boost demand for polyethylene terephthalate (PET), bottled water, and sportswear made from polyester. While the removal of China’s textile export quotas to Europe could stimulate demand, its impact is anticipated to be relatively modest.
In developing economies like China, India, and Indonesia—responsible for 63% of global polyester consumption—the demand is projected to grow at an annual rate of 11.4%, significantly outpacing the 3.3% growth seen in developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe. In 2008, global polyester demand is expected to rise by 8% to 48.5 million tons, while capacity expansion will only increase by 5.6%. Only 2.2 million tons of new capacity is expected to come online in China this year.
Profitability in the polyester industry is also expected to improve, with earnings estimated to reach $260 per ton in 2008, up from $220 per ton in 2007. The continued high prices of replacement cotton and a decline in supply are further supporting the market. Far East Textile, a major Taiwanese polyester company, has noted that demand remains strong, with stable orders in the first half of the year. Goldman Sachs analysts are confident that the industry's profit margins will stay robust.
The strong performance of ethylene glycol is also contributing to higher polyester prices. In the first quarter of this year, the gross margin for MEG could reach $800 per ton, assuming an ethylene cost of $1,300 per ton. This represents an improvement over previous margins of around $550 per ton.
Major players in the region, including South Asia Plastics, Asia’s largest producer of ethylene glycol, along with Far East Textile and Dongfang Lian Chemicals, are well-positioned to benefit from rising oil prices and sustained demand for polyester products. With favorable market conditions and strong fundamentals, the polyester sector is set for continued growth in the near term.