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Take ethylene oxide in East China market as an example. This year, just six months later, domestic ethylene oxide market prices have experienced a sharp rise and one plunge.
Earlier this year, people in the industry had predicted that with the slowdown of China's economic growth in 2005, the growth rate of demand for chemical products in the domestic market will also slow down at the same time. Considering that the contradiction between supply and demand cannot be completely alleviated, the ethylene oxide price in the domestic market will continue to operate at a high level, but the price shock will be smaller than in 2004, and the average annual price will be about 11,800 yuan (t price, the same below). about. In early January of this year, the reference price of domestic ethylene oxide market was 13,000 yuan, although it fell by 200 yuan compared to the end of December 2004, but since mid-January and late January, the market price has been rising all the way, and the reference price has been late in February. It rose to 13700 to 14400 yuan. However, this uptrend has not yet ended. In early March, the reference price of ethylene oxide market reached 14,500 to 14,700 yuan, and rose to 16,600 to 16,800 yuan in the later period. In early April, the price rushed to 16800 to 17,000 yuan, hitting a record high. From mid-January to mid-April, in just three months, the low price rose by 3,800 yuan and the high rose by 3,900 yuan.
It is not difficult to see that the actual price of the ethylene oxide market is far from the expectation. It is abnormal in the absence of any special reason, and the firmness of prices will certainly not last long.
The same is true in practice. In mid-and late April, the market price of ethylene oxide was still basically maintained at the early stage. By the beginning of May, the ethylene oxide market was abruptly changed and prices began to plummet. The reference price had dropped from 16800 to 17100 yuan in mid-April to 13800 to 14300 yuan in early June, basically returning to the level before the price increase at the beginning of the year. The average price fell by around 3,000 yuan within a month. And experts analyze that this downward trend may still exist.
If it is not the market that is in short supply and some unexpected incidents, the skyrocketing price of products is likely to be an abnormal phenomenon, and there may be artificial over-hype. If this is indeed the case, such excessive prices will not last long, and there will surely be a sharp drop in prices. Because, the role of price leverage is not to be transferred by anyone's will, nor is it that any business can easily operate.