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With the advent of the Internet, the automotive industry as a representative of traditional industries has also ushered in innovation, and new technologies and new thinking such as intelligent vehicle systems, automatic driving, plug-in hybrids, and Wechat vehicles have emerged. While bringing new directions to the Chinese auto industry, it also ignited speculation: What will happen to the next leg of the Chinese auto industry?
Conjecture one of the car intelligence or IT subversion car
The rapid development of the Internet has had a huge impact on traditional manufacturing industries, and the automotive industry is no exception.
Not long ago, Hitachi disclosed for the first time the new technologies required for autonomous driving, and it has begun to sell related auto parts to the world's auto makers.
Prior to this, Volvo Cars also showed off models of the 2015 XC60, V60 and S60R-design and V40 with the Sensus system. Sensus is a new intelligent vehicle interaction system developed by Volvo. It includes 34 on-board interconnection functions including Internet, service, entertainment, navigation (Navi) and control, which can provide users with safe, convenient, intelligent and efficient vehicles. Internal and external Internet experience. Volvo hopes that in the near future, with Sensus as the window to open the future of the interconnected world, with the help of cloud technology and automatic driving and other technological advantages, build a unique intelligent ecosystem.
According to industry sources, the reason why Hitachi and Volvo have to strengthen their offensive in automotive intelligence is that cars have now gradually evolved into a high-tech aggregator and are rapidly realizing IT.
On March 3rd, Apple officially announced that it will launch CarPlay system with Ferrari, Mercedes-Benz and Volvo, etc.; On March 11th, Tencent released "Loubao Box" to realize the interconnection of auto and Tencent cloud services; during the Beijing Auto Show in April , Baidu officially launched the car networking product CarNet; June 26, Google officially announced the Android Auto Android intelligent system at the I/O Developer Conference in San Francisco......
The aggressive "invasion" of the IT industry has hidden the ambition of subverting the largest mobile terminal, the automotive industry. Li Bin, chairman and CEO of Easycar, said, “We have seen all Internet giants entering the automotive industry, Apple’s introduction of carplay, and Google’s launch of driverless cars. Although the current models are not beautiful enough, based on the Internet technology made by big data on the Internet R&D is still in its infancy, but in the future, the Internet industry will have a profound change in the automotive industry. It will not only change the habits of consumers, but will even subvert the auto industry."
The automotive industry is more willing to see this as an industry integration. Zhao Hang, director of the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, once said: "The internet can't make the life of a car. The internet can only make cars smarter, making travel easier and smoother."
There are also many people in the industry who believe that those who can't subvert the automobile and IT will show a convergence. Ni Guangnan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, is one of the representatives. At the recent Global Automotive Forum in 2014, Ni Guangnan said that the rapid rise of IT companies and traditional automotive companies should be mutually reinforcing and complement each other.
Conjecture 2 of 4S shops and e-commerce who will occupy the mainstream of sales
The changes brought by the Internet to the automotive industry are not just about technology, but also sales patterns.
With the approach of the "Double 11" and the impact of the whole year's mission at the end of the year, major auto brands such as Volvo and Tesla have recently started various preheating activities.
For Volvo, this is not the first time contact with the electricity supplier. In May of this year, Volvo has reached a strategic cooperation with China's leading O2O car service platform, Easy Access Vehicles, to realize the first cross-border alliance between car and mobile Internet.
In fact, as a new development trend, automotive e-commerce is showing a strong vitality. According to Nielsen's recent data, 92% of users want to understand the relevant information of the car through the Internet when they buy a car. In China, 86% are willing to consider buying cars through the Internet.
Under such a situation, can the automobile e-commerce company realize the reform of the auto sales channels? Did the traditional 4S shop model continue to dominate the market? Although no one directly gives a judgment, most people are more optimistic about the future of automotive e-commerce.
Da Wentao, deputy general manager of Xinhuaxin Automotive Marketing Solutions, believes that the future of automotive e-commerce must be a trend. Luo Lei, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Dealers Association, also expressed the same point of view. He believes that "the future development of automotive e-commerce will gradually expand, and with the transformation of auto products, such as the promotion of market-oriented pure electric vehicles It may also further stimulate the development of automotive e-commerce and provide a broader perspective for automotive e-commerce."
However, there are also some people in the industry who say that the entire sales cycle model of automotive e-commerce may be realized in the future, but cars are not fast-moving products after all, not once the transaction is completed, and there are many links after the sale that require 4S shops to provide services. . Therefore, automotive e-commerce cannot completely replace the existing model of 4S stores. For a long time, the status of traditional sales models will not be shaken.
Dong Qing Yulong Automobile Co., Ltd. deputy general manager Bai Qingyuan said in an interview with the media some time ago, "It is difficult to say that e-commerce can completely replace 4S stores, it is also difficult to replace the existing marketing structure of the automotive industry." And another 4S shop The person in charge also said, “There is still a lot of difficulties in online shopping. There is no way to break through, for example, the sale of the car, on the card, insurance, etc., and the after-sales service are still not completed online, and consumers still have doubts about the large-scale online shopping such as car purchase. , physical stores are more secure in their opinion."
In this regard, Yu Xiumin, professor of Jilin University Automotive Engineering College, said that although the current mainstream car sales model has problems such as too much investment, high costs, and low efficiency, this model will certainly last for a long time, even if the future The automotive e-commerce industry will gain a greater degree of development, but it will never replace the sales model of auto 4S stores, or will continue to exist in a coexistence model.
Conjecture three new energy vehicle power: pure electric or mixed
To talk about the future of the auto industry, new energy vehicles are naturally a topic that can't be bypassed. As the boots of the national policy landed, car manufacturers also competed on new energy vehicles.
At the "2014 Energy-saving and New Energy Auto Show" held from October 17 to 21, Volvo Cars announced that it will officially introduce the plug-in hybrid S60L next year and plans to mass-produce it at the Chengdu plant.
It is understood that Volvo S60L plug-in hybrid vehicles are divided into pure electric, hybrid and high-performance three driving modes, a collection of three cars in one function, one vehicle and more use. In pure electric mode, the Volvo S60L has a single cruising range of more than 50 kilometers, which can meet the commuting demand of 75% of Chinese consumers with zero emissions. In the hybrid mode, one box of gasoline plus one charge, the maximum cruising range is up to 1000 A kilometer can completely abolish consumer anxiety about power loss and cruising mileage, with a fuel consumption of 2.1 litres per 100 kilometers and a carbon emission of 50 grams per kilometer. If you use the high-performance mode, that is, the gasoline engine and the motor are turned on at the same time, the maximum power of the car can reach 24,570 horsepower and the maximum torque can reach 350,200 Nm.
However, in China, despite the fact that the development of the new energy auto industry has been in place for a long time, it is still a question to be resolved whether it should be more purely to choose pure electric or hybrid power. In fact, the debate between pure electric vehicles and hybrids, especially plug-in hybrids, has been a longstanding one. Since the 2012 “Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry Planning (2011--2020)†was published, both parties have been Contest state.
From the perspective of environmental protection, “pure-electrically-driven†vehicles are aimed at zero emissions, conforming to the trend of development of automotive power and electrification, and representing the development direction of the automotive industry, and therefore becoming the “direction of development and top priority†for new energy vehicles in China. . However, technical limitations have restricted the important obstacles to the promotion of pure electric vehicles. It is understood that most current electric vehicles have a cruising range of about 150 kilometers and can only meet the needs of urban vehicles. When they want to travel to the suburbs or travel long distances during the spring season, they can only buy another car with other power.
In the eyes of the industry, plug-in hybrid power will be more suitable for the current consumer environment because of its lower dependence on infrastructure.
In an interview with reporters, Fu Qiang, president and chief executive officer of Volvo Cars China Sales, made it clear that Volvo will not introduce pure electric vehicles in the short term. He believes that it is not realistic to promote pure electric vehicles under the condition that supporting facilities are not perfect, and hybrid vehicles are undoubtedly the more grounding gas choice at present.
Dong Yang, Secretary-General of the China Automobile Association, also supported this view. "Comparing pure electric and hybrid, we should pay more attention to hybrid power and use the same strength to promote. The effect of fuel economy caused by mixing is even greater. It can be said that looking at the future for 20 years, it is unclear whether pure electric energy can be popularized. However, the popularity of hybrid power is already visible."
Industry experts pointed out that whether it is pure electric or hybrid, the development of China's new energy vehicles should be based on the actual focus on the future. Pure electric and hybrid "walking on two legs" or more rational choices.
Fu Qiang also said that the main push of plug-in hybrid vehicles does not mean that Volvo bid farewell to the pure electric technology route, but chose a more pragmatic development path. Volvo has the technology of pure electric vehicles. In the future, as long as the infrastructure is mature and the market needs, companies can adjust product strategies according to market changes at any time and introduce pure electric vehicles.
