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The key theme we've been emphasizing for over a year now is the shift of freight from the for-hire market to private fleets—a trend that has significantly prolonged the soft freight cycle, even as the economy continues to outperform expectations. However, according to the latest release of the *Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume Outlook* report, this trend may be coming to an end.
"Lower equipment supply, especially from private fleets, could be a major factor in a market turnaround in 2025," said Tim Denoyer, ACT Research's Vice President and Senior Analyst. "Additionally, an upcoming FMCSA regulation next month could potentially downgrade tens of thousands of CDL holders in states that haven't previously enforced the FMCSA’s Drug & Alcohol Clearinghouse. While it's hard to measure exactly, this change on November 18 could have two positive outcomes: improving road safety and pushing truckload rates higher."
The DAT load/truck ratio isn’t a simple 1-to-10 scale—it can go well beyond 11. It hit the mid-teens in 2017 and early 2018, and reached the high teens during 2021, peaking above 20. Our seasonally adjusted aggregated DAT load/truck ratio recently crossed 7 in early October, signaling that spot rates are likely to rise modestly in the near term.
"However, the equipment capacity rebalancing needed to push rates up in 2025 hasn’t fully materialized yet," Denoyer added.
### Freight Forecast Report Overview
The monthly 58-page *Freight Forecast* by ACT provides in-depth analysis and forecasts for a wide range of U.S. freight metrics, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, and DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type. The report offers monthly, quarterly, and annual projections for the TL, LTL, and intermodal markets over a two- to three-year horizon, covering capacity, volume, and rate trends. With its detailed insights into the freight rate outlook, the *Freight Forecast* helps companies across the supply chain make more informed decisions with greater clarity and confidence.
### About ACT Research
ACT Research is widely regarded as the leading provider of commercial vehicle data, market analysis, and forecasts for the North American and Chinese markets. Its analytical services are used by all major truck and trailer manufacturers, their suppliers, and financial institutions. ACT is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. Its executives have received numerous accolades, including appointments to the National Association for Business Economics and the National Private Truck Council, as well as the Lawrence R. Klein Award for the most accurate economic forecast over four years. ACT Research senior staff members have also been recognized with honors such as the Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast and the Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook. For more information, visit www.actresearch.net.