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The key theme we've been emphasizing for over a year now is the shift of freight from the for-hire market to private fleets—an evolution that has significantly prolonged the soft freight cycle, even as the economy continues to outperform expectations. However, this trend may be coming to an end, according to the latest edition of the *Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume Outlook* report.
"Lower equipment supply, especially from private fleets, could play a major role in a market turnaround in 2025," said Tim Denoyer, Vice President and Senior Analyst at ACT Research. "Additionally, an upcoming FMCSA regulation set to take effect next month could potentially downgrade tens of thousands of CDL holders in states that haven’t previously been required to enforce the FMCSA’s Drug & Alcohol Clearinghouse. While it's hard to measure exactly, this change on November 18 could have two positive outcomes: improving road safety and pushing truckload rates higher."
*Aggregate DAT Load/Truck Ratio & Spot Rates*
The DAT load/truck ratio isn't a simple 1-to-10 scale—it can go well beyond 11. It hit the mid-teens in 2017 and early 2018, and climbed into the high teens during 2021, peaking above 20. Our seasonally adjusted DAT load/truck ratio recently broke above 7 in early October, which suggests spot rates will rise slightly in the near term.
"However, the equipment capacity rebalancing needed to push rates up in 2025 hasn’t fully materialized yet," Denoyer added.
**Freight Forecast Report Overview**
The monthly 58-page *Freight Forecast* from ACT provides in-depth analysis and forecasts for a wide range of U.S. freight metrics, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, and DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type. The report offers monthly, quarterly, and annual projections for the TL, LTL, and intermodal markets over a two- to three-year horizon, covering capacity, volume, and pricing trends. With detailed insights into the freight rate outlook, the *Freight Forecast* gives companies across the supply chain greater visibility and confidence in their planning.
**ACT Research Overview**
ACT Research is the leading provider of commercial vehicle data, market analysis, and forecasts for North America and China. Its services are widely used by major truck and trailer manufacturers, suppliers, and financial institutions. ACT is also a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. The company has earned recognition from industry peers, including appointments to the National Association for Business Economics Board of Directors and the National Private Truck Council. ACT researchers have received prestigious awards such as the Lawrence R. Klein Award for the most accurate economic forecast over four years. Their work has also been highlighted by the Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium, the Wall Street Journal, and USA Today. For more information, visit www.actresearch.net.