In the morning, standing in front of the window and watching the dark sky, snow fluttering around, fluttering and sprinkling is trying to create a white world ... ... the cold wave arrived on time. And my heart is lost in this pure white world... The trucking market where we depend on has long been struggling in the “cold stream”, and shuffling is inevitable, to be exact.


With the further decline of the domestic economy, especially the pace of shrinking the real economy has accelerated, the road transport industry has reached an unprecedented dilemma. Forcing many truckers to struggle on the edge of survival, back in 2015, they must be lamented! Too much bitterness, looking forward to 2016, is the "money" way.

In fact, the domestic economic situation has an inevitable causal relationship with the international economic situation. It is just that the topic of the "international economic situation" is too great. As a truckman, he is not afraid to add commentary, or to shed some light, to explore the domestic economy and our trucking. The direction of the market is right.

First, the domestic economic situation <br> <br> Perhaps many cardholders when experienced in 2015 have felt unprecedented pressure, as supply continues to decrease, resulting in lower tariffs and again, there are many routes the carrier even at a loss, of course, there is reason A lot, but the most straightforward is that there are many goods and less vehicles. Why are there less goods? I have compiled some information here. I believe I will understand it after reading it.

1. The coal industry has suffered a serious overcapacity in the domestic market and prices have dropped to a low level (the once highest at 800 yuan and one ton has fallen to around 370 yuan now), leading to automatic or forced closure of companies reaching 1,052 in 2015. Some illegal exploitation leads to waste of resources and environmental damage. The state plans to force the closure of more than 1,000 mines in 2016. In fact, the loss rate of coal enterprises in 2015 reached 90%.

2. Iron and steel industry In the first 11 months of 2015, the total loss of key steel companies totaled 53.132 billion yuan. In 2015, the world's largest steel producer, China, the annual output of steel fell for the first time in 34 years. On January 19, the National Bureau of Statistics released data. It shows that China's crude steel production in 2015 was 804 million tons, a decrease of 2.3% year-on-year. This figure does not include small and medium-sized private steel companies. If we count that figure, it is even more terrifying.

3, paper industry Hangzhou Fuyang is the national whiteboard paper production base, which is also a small famous place in the same industry, because of fierce competition and environmental protection factors, from the peak of more than 300 papermaking companies to 237 by 2015, How about a degressive concept?

4. Real estate With the gradual cooling of the largest bubble economy in the country, real estate companies’ inventory and financial pressures continue to increase. According to the latest statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, the saleable area of ​​the top ten cities in June 2015 was 97,629,700 square meters. Such high inventory and financial pressure forced property developers to do everything they can to inventory and return funds within a short time. Large-scale construction has long been hopeless.

In 2015, the economic income of the main entity enterprises is still declining, and there is insufficient supply of reserve stocks. At the same time, the absolute level of finished product inventories is relatively high, and inventory pressure will be faced in the short term. As a result, there was vicious competition in the industry, which pushed down the price of each other, and also brought about the pressure of survival. Since June, the futures prices of copper, rebar, aluminum, coal and other commodities have been weak, which also shows that companies are cautious about their future expectations and will be willing to restock. Not strong, development is even less.

After analyzing the situation of the above industries and taking a look at our road transport industry, it is not difficult to understand why our survival is so difficult. It may be that in recent years, China’s economic growth has been buoyant. The capacity of the transportation market has been relatively balanced with supply and demand. The survival of truckers has been relatively easy. The overall economy has experienced serious downturns in the past two years, resulting in an imbalance in supply and demand, leading to vicious competition, coupled with some unfair practices in law enforcement. The mistaken law-enforcement concept of using fine-grabbing escrow has virtually increased operating costs and further deteriorated the living environment. Many grass-roots truckers are difficult to maintain.


Second, the national policy inadvertently help <br> <br> policy in other countries have to some extent unintentionally, for this reshuffle also played a role in fueling, according to the Ministry of Environmental Protection informed the 16-year January 9, the end of November A total of 1,117,700 yellow label vehicles registered for operation before the end of 2005 were eliminated. Of course, trucks are only a large part of them.

Why does this policy inadvertently exacerbate the reshuffling of the transportation market?

As we all know, the implementation of the Yellow Label policy is mainly a matter of national consideration of environmental protection, followed by the ability to pull some domestic demand, integrate transport market capacity, optimize the working environment and safety of truckers, etc., but absolutely never thought, because of the difficulties in the industry, many After the truck man was forced to eliminate this production tool, he never renewed his motivation. The key is that after the release of the National Five-Emission Standard, the direction of the follow-up policy is not clear, and some people have stopped to wait and see. Therefore, the government's yellow label policy and the determination of the country's five emissions are undoubtedly exacerbating the progress of shuffling.


Third, short-term prediction

Everyone has seen that this head start in January 2016 is not optimistic. Perhaps it is expected. Because of the impact of the economic climate, all manufacturers and companies are not willing or afraid to prepare stocks before the year. Goods, the first is financial pressure, the second is the fear of raw material prices are not clear, so formed in most areas, the peak season is still lighter than the off-season phenomenon, after the year to the end of April, early May was the traditional peak season.

However, this season is different from the previous peak season. It is a season that is both true and false. Why is it so? According to the macro climate, there will be no peak season in the short term, but according to companies that were unwilling to stock raw materials before the year, there will be a rigid demand for trade unions after the year. So there will be a small period of excitement for truckers during this period.

But this is indeed an illusion, do not mistakenly think that 2016 has been reshuffled, the transport market is recovering. This led to blind investment, economic pressure, and even losses. However, truckmen in their place should take advantage of this rare short-term “peak season”. The “Frigid Cold” continues in the later stages, and shuffling is still in progress.

Maybe someone will ask, when is the shuffle? I can only say that when the domestic economy is relatively stable and the supply and demand balance is basically balanced after the optimization of the transportation market... But what about the specific time? Oh, "The ghost knows!"



Tipping bucket tramcar is used in mines or construction sites to transport broken lump materials. Such as ore, coal, stone and so on.

It is widely used in coal mines, gold mines, iron ore, gypsum mines and other mining industries. In mines or construction sites, it is used to transport broken lump materials, such as ore, coal, stone and so on.

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